Football · Cross-market comparison
Same top-three share. Very different football fields.
The top three held about 28% in both markets, but the NFL distributed title share across much more of its listed field.
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Sports Market Observatory
Sports-market movement, visualized.
Sports Market Observatory tracks how betting markets change before games and turns those shifts into clear, timestamped visual stories. Get the free Weekly Market Trace every Sunday.
Repeated pre-game snapshots · Market-implied probability
Latest Market Stories
What the market looked like before the game.
The weekly editorial selection now has a permanent home—chart, measurements, scope, and all.
NFL · Futures field
The Rams stand alone—but the NFL field runs deep
The Rams led at 13.36%, 5.95 points ahead of Buffalo, while 18 teams sat between the absolute 1% and 5% lines.
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College football · Futures field
Seven teams crowded the top. Most of the field sat below 1%.
Ohio State led Notre Dame by only 0.53 points, seven teams cleared 5%, and 120 of 138 listed teams sat below 1%.
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What we track
One clear market story at a time.
Pre-game probability movement
How aggregate market-implied chances shift before start time.
Market flips and tightening
When the leader changes, or a matchup moves toward a tighter field.
Futures probability fields
How championship probability mass moves across the field.
Three-outcome match-result fields
How win, draw, and opponent states change before start time.
How it works
How the trace is built.
We normalize prices across multiple books into aggregate implied probabilities, then chart how that consensus changes before start time.
Capture window
15h pre-game
Observations
93 snapshots
Market coverage
11 books
Time context
Scheduled start
- 01Capture repeated observations before the scheduled start.
- 02Normalize prices into aggregate market-implied probability.
- 03Plot how consensus changes across the pre-game window.
The Sunday digest
Get the free Weekly Market Trace.
A concise Sunday look at pre-game movement, futures drift, and the market stories that stood out.
Each visual combines repeated market observations into a clear view of movement, timing, and coverage.