Belgium led early. USA finished with the edge
A sharp USA move nearly reversed before a steadier climb carried the United States to a 4.7-point final pre-game edge over Belgium.
What changed
Reading the trace.
Belgium held the market edge through much of the early window and led by 0.3 probability points entering July 5. A sharp USA move later that morning almost fully reversed before a steadier climb developed.
The timing overlaps with the announcement that Folarin Balogun would be available for selection. The overlap is relevant context, but the captured data cannot establish that the announcement caused the movement.
By the final check—twelve minutes before kickoff—the United States led Belgium 37.7% to 33.0%, with the draw at 29.3%.
Context sources
Scope and method
The 90-minute result market was normalized across the available field into three aggregate states: USA, draw, and Belgium. Timing context is descriptive and does not establish causation.