Boston’s title chance rose 80% during a 7–1 calendar stretch

Boston rose from 1.98% to 3.56% across eight daily snapshots—the largest gain in the complete 30-team field.

Boston’s eight-snapshot World Series title-probability path rising from 1.98% to 3.56%, aligned with a 7–1 calendar result strip, plus the top five field gains and a compact Dodgers benchmark.
2026 World Series futures · July 17–24 · Transformed aggregate market data

What changed

Reading the trace.

Boston rose from 1.98% to 3.56% across eight daily snapshots. The 1.58-point gain was the largest in the complete 30-team field and moved the Red Sox from 12th to ninth. That is an 80% relative increase, although the endpoint remained a modest 3.56%.

Boston went 7–1 over the same July 17–24 calendar window. The first July 17 futures snapshot was recorded at 7:06 PM Eastern: after the 1:35 PM game and just before the scheduled 7:10 PM night game.

Milwaukee was next in the field at +0.68 points, followed by Baltimore, the White Sox, and Atlanta. The Dodgers remained No. 1 at 29.2%, up just 0.12 points and 16.6 points clear of No. 2. The game sequence and futures path share a calendar, but the visual does not claim game results alone caused the repricing.

Context sources

Scope and method

Each daily futures field was normalized into aggregate no-vig title probability. The chart publishes transformed field movement and calendar context; it does not expose raw prices or claim the game sequence alone caused the repricing.

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