The Rams stand alone—but the NFL field runs deep

The Rams led at 13.36%, 5.95 points ahead of Buffalo, while 18 teams sat between the absolute 1% and 5% lines.

NFL title-share field with the Rams at 13.36%, 5.95 probability points clear of Buffalo, and 18 teams between the absolute 1% and 5% lines.
Super Bowl winner market · July 31 · 6:10 PM CT · Transformed aggregate market data

What changed

Reading the trace.

The Rams held 13.36% of normalized Super Bowl title share at the final July 31 capture. Buffalo followed at 7.41%, leaving Los Angeles 5.95 probability points clear of the second-ranked team. All six reporting books listed the complete 32-team field.

Behind that separated leader, the market retained a deep middle. Five teams held at least 5%, 18 sat between the absolute 1% and 5% lines, and nine remained below 1%. Half the league—16 of 32 teams—cleared the 3.125% equal-share baseline.

The capture was genuinely preseason: the NFL said every team would be in camp by July 28, with the Hall of Fame Game scheduled for August 6. Those dates establish the market’s seasonal context; they do not explain why the Rams led.

Context sources

Scope and method

Each book’s complete 32-team board was normalized to 100%. Team values were averaged across six reporting books and the aggregate means were rebased within the market. The 1% line is descriptive; equal share for a 32-team field is 3.125%.

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