Seven teams crowded the top. Most of the field sat below 1%.
Ohio State led Notre Dame by only 0.53 points, seven teams cleared 5%, and 120 of 138 listed teams sat below 1%.
What changed
Reading the trace.
Ohio State held 9.98% of normalized national-championship title share at the final July 31 capture, followed by Notre Dame at 9.45% and Texas at 8.61%. The leader gap was only 0.53 probability points, and seven teams cleared 5%.
The rest of the field thinned quickly. Only 18 of 138 listed teams reached the absolute 1% line, while 120 sat below it. Those 120 teams represented 87.0% of the listed field but only 16.77% of its normalized probability. Twenty-two teams cleared the 0.725% equal-share baseline.
Four books reported college title markets, but their board sizes ranged from 61 to 137 teams and each listed team appeared at two to four books. Treating missing teams as zero in a sensitivity check left the threshold counts unchanged. The college season’s August 27 start supplies seasonal context, not a claim that the captured market is a true forecast.
Context sources
Scope and method
Each book’s listed outright board was normalized to 100%. Team values were averaged across books listing that team, then the aggregate means were rebased within the market. Four books reported boards of different sizes, so coverage varied by team; a missing-as-zero sensitivity check preserved the field-shape interpretation.